p-vrednost

U statističkom testiranju hipoteze, p-vrednost (engl. probability value) ili vrednost verovatnoće, za dati statistički model verovatnoća je da će, kada je nulta hipoteza tačna, statistički parametar (kao što je apsolutna vrednost prosečne razlike između dve upoređene grupe) biti veći ili jednak stvarno uočenom rezultatima.^[1] Upotreba p-vrednosti u testiranju statističkih hipoteza je uobičajena u mnogim oblastima istraživanja^[2] kao što su fizika, ekonomija, finansije, političke nauke, psihologija,^[3] biologija, krivično pravo, kriminologija i sociologija.^[4] Zloupotreba p-vrednosti je kontroverzna tema u metanauci.^[5]

Zakošavanje slova, upotreba velikih slova i deljenja reči variraju. Na primer, AMA stil koristi „P vrednost”, APA stil koristi „p vrednost”, a Američko statističko udruženje koristi „p-vrednost”.^[6]

Reference[уреди | уреди извор]

^ Wasserstein, Ronald L.; Lazar, Nicole A. (7. 3. 2016). „The ASA's Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose”. The American Statistician. 70 (2): 129—133. doi:10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108.
^ Bhattacharya, Bhaskar; Habtzghi, DeSale (2002). „Median of the p value under the alternative hypothesis”. The American Statistician. 56 (3): 202—6. doi:10.1198/000313002146.
^ Wetzels, R.; Matzke, D.; Lee, M. D.; Rouder, J. N.; Iverson, G. J.; Wagenmakers, E. -J. (2011). „Statistical Evidence in Experimental Psychology: An Empirical Comparison Using 855 t Tests”. Perspectives on Psychological Science. 6 (3): 291—298. PMID 26168519. doi:10.1177/1745691611406923.
^ Babbie, E. (2007). The practice of social research 11th ed. Thomson Wadsworth: Belmont, California.
^ Ioannidis, John P. A.; Ware, Jennifer J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Simonsohn, Uri; Chambers, Christopher D.; Button, Katherine S.; Bishop, Dorothy V. M.; Nosek, Brian A.; Munafò, Marcus R. (januar 2017). „A manifesto for reproducible science”. Nature Human Behaviour (на језику: енглески). стр. 0021. doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0021. Приступљено 9. 5. 2019.
^ ASA House Style

Literatura[уреди | уреди извор]

Pearson, Karl (1900). „On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable in the case of a correlated system of variables is such that it can be reasonably supposed to have arisen from random sampling” (PDF). Philosophical Magazine. Series 5. 50 (302): 157—175. doi:10.1080/14786440009463897.
Elderton, William Palin (1902). „Tables for Testing the Goodness of Fit of Theory to Observation”. Biometrika. 1 (2): 155—163. doi:10.1093/biomet/1.2.155.
Fisher, Ronald (1925). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Edinburgh, Scotland: Oliver & Boyd. ISBN 978-0-05-002170-5.
Fisher, Ronald A. (1971) [1935]. The Design of Experiments (9th изд.). Macmillan. ISBN 978-0-02-844690-5.
Fisher, R. A.; Yates, F. (1938). Statistical tables for biological, agricultural and medical research. London, England.
Stigler, Stephen M. (1986). The history of statistics : the measurement of uncertainty before 1900. Cambridge, Mass: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-40340-6.
Hubbard, Raymond; Bayarri, M. J. (novembar 2003), P Values are not Error Probabilities (PDF), Архивирано из оригинала (PDF) на датум 4. 9. 2013, a working paper that explains the difference between Fisher's evidential p-value and the Neyman–Pearson Type I error rate α.
Hubbard, Raymond; Armstrong, J. Scott (2006). „Why We Don't Really Know What Statistical Significance Means: Implications for Educators” (PDF). Journal of Marketing Education. 28 (2): 114—120. doi:10.1177/0273475306288399. Архивирано из оригинала на датум 18. 5. 2006.
Hubbard, Raymond; Lindsay, R. Murray (2008). „Why P Values Are Not a Useful Measure of Evidence in Statistical Significance Testing” (PDF). Theory & Psychology. 18 (1): 69—88. doi:10.1177/0959354307086923. Архивирано из оригинала (PDF) на датум 21. 10. 2016. Приступљено 21. 07. 2019.
Stigler, S. (decembar 2008). „Fisher and the 5% level”. Chance. 21 (4): 12. doi:10.1007/s00144-008-0033-3.
Dallal, Gerard E. (2012). The Little Handbook of Statistical Practice.
Biau, D.J.; Jolles, B.M.; Porcher, R. (mart 2010). „P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers”. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 463 (3): 885—892. PMC 2816758 . PMID 19921345. doi:10.1007/s11999-009-1164-4.
Reinhart, Alex (2015). Statistics Done Wrong: The Woefully Complete Guide. No Starch Press. стр. 176. ISBN 978-1593276201.

Spoljašnje veze[уреди | уреди извор]

Free online p-values calculators for various specific tests (chi-square, Fisher's F-test, etc.).
Understanding p-values, including a Java applet that illustrates how the numerical values of p-values can give quite misleading impressions about the truth or falsity of the hypothesis under test.
StatQuest: P Values, clearly explained na sajtu YouTube
StatQuest: P-value pitfalls and power calculations na sajtu YouTube

[ASA-1] Wasserstein, Ronald L.; Lazar, Nicole A. (7. 3. 2016). „The ASA's Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose”. The American Statistician. 70 (2): 129—133. doi:10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108.

[Bhattacharya2002-2] Bhattacharya, Bhaskar; Habtzghi, DeSale (2002). „Median of the p value under the alternative hypothesis”. The American Statistician. 56 (3): 202—6. doi:10.1198/000313002146.

[3] Wetzels, R.; Matzke, D.; Lee, M. D.; Rouder, J. N.; Iverson, G. J.; Wagenmakers, E. -J. (2011). „Statistical Evidence in Experimental Psychology: An Empirical Comparison Using 855 t Tests”. Perspectives on Psychological Science. 6 (3): 291—298. PMID 26168519. doi:10.1177/1745691611406923.

[4] Babbie, E. (2007). The practice of social research 11th ed. Thomson Wadsworth: Belmont, California.

[5] Ioannidis, John P. A.; Ware, Jennifer J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Simonsohn, Uri; Chambers, Christopher D.; Button, Katherine S.; Bishop, Dorothy V. M.; Nosek, Brian A.; Munafò, Marcus R. (januar 2017). „A manifesto for reproducible science”. Nature Human Behaviour (на језику: енглески). стр. 0021. doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0021. Приступљено 9. 5. 2019.

[6] ASA House Style

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